Forecasting individual reps' attainment in a forward time frame:
Forecasting a team's attainment while comparing to past time periods:
Forecasting forward pipeline for a team:
- Why It's Important
- Who It's Useful For
- Metrics Preferences Settings
- Calculation Method for the Closed Won Conversion Rate
- What Data Is Used
- Back of Card
- How to Use It
- Important to Note
Sum of all pipeline with a close date during the given time period, weighted by the actual historical win rate from the stage that opportunity is currently in.
Why It’s Important
Understanding pipeline coverage is key to anticipate issues with an AE hitting quota. Filtering on this card allows you to see win rate-weighted future pipeline by stage, forecast category, opportunity health, and other factors in order to inform your forecasting.
Who It’s Useful For
AEs and their managers, and AMs and their managers.
Sum of the value of all opportunities with a close date during a given time period, multiplied by the Closed Won Conversion Rate of opportunities in that stage.
Metrics Preferences Settings
You have the ability to adjust some of the variables used for this metric by making changes under your drop down menu>Company Settings>Metrics Preferences -
Here you will have the option of calculating the historical win rate by choosing the number of days from where Closed Won opportunity's are pulled, and the number of required opportunities from the same rep, and from the rep's peers before calculating expected win rates based on a rep's, or rep's peers' historical performance, respectively.
The default metrics are to calculate historical win rates based on opportunities that closed in the last 180 days, and require at least 10 closed opportunities from the same rep before calculating expected win rates based on a rep's historical performance, and require at least 10 closed opportunities from reps with the same segment and discipline before calculating win rates based on a rep's peers' historical performance.
Calculation Method for the Closed Won Conversion Rate
Individual Owner History: Atrium calculates the win rate from each stage at the most granular level possible, provided we have sufficient data. This means that for individuals who have closed more than the selected number of opportunities from the above metrics preference, in the trailing period selected, we will use that individual's win rate from each stage to closed won to calculate the weighted value of their pipeline.
Owner Role History: For individuals with fewer than the above number of closed opportunities, we will use the average win rate for all individuals in the same role at your organization, provided that all individuals in that role have closed the number of selected opportunities in the trailing 180 days.
Stage Probability: For roles without sufficient historical data, we will use the stage probability in Salesforce to weight pipeline value.
What Data Is Used
All information comes from the Opportunity object in Salesforce. The Opportunity Owner tells us which reps owns the opportunity. The Close Date tells us in which time period the rep expects the booking to come in. The pipeline value shown pulls the standard Amount field by default but can be updated to pull from a custom field in the Salesforce Data Settings or by notifying Atrium customer success. The historical win rate for each stage is calculated by Atrium according to the above logic.
Alerting on this card looks at the total amount of probability-weighted pipeline with a close date in the next 90 days. Atrium will compare that value to the amount owned by each rep's peers. The alerts let you know if a rep has significantly more or less weighted open pipeline in his name than usual, or significantly more or less than his peers.
Back of Card
The data on the back of this card shows, for each Opportunity included in the calculation, the individual who owns the Opportunity, the Opp Name of the associated Opportunity, the Expected Revenue (calculated by Opp size x Conversion), the Opp Size shown as the amount in dollars, the Converstion Rate and Calculation Method (see below), the Opp Stage, the Stage Probability, the Same Owner Conversion Rate, the Owner Role Conversion Rate, the Close Date, the Opp Health score given by Atrium, the Opp Type, the Opp Source, the Forecast Category, and the Account Tier (if applicable).
How to Use It
One way that this card will be helpful is in identifying not only the total pipeline carried by a rep, and when that pipeline is expected to close, but also what that number looks like weighted by actual probability of closing to get a better sense of the true expected value of that pipeline. You can further investigate using the filters for forecast categories and opp health buckets that pipe falls into, which can be helpful in forecasting.
Important to Note
Any goals set on this card reflect a forward facing time period. For example, if you were to set a quarterly goal against Weighted Pipeline by Historical Win Rate, that goal would be set for Pipeline with a close date in the forward 90 days.